Coral Springs, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS62 KMFL 061112
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
712 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

The mid-week period will feature the rebuilding of a mid-level ridge
over South Florida, helping to stabilize the atmosphere to an
extent. This will be more so the case on Wednesday as the ridge
regains its magnitude and mid-level temperatures start to rise
several degrees. However, this will not be entirely the case today
as the ridge will just be starting to build and thus warm air
advection is not expected to be strong. This is evidenced by
ensemble guidance only showing an increase of about 1 degree
celsius, if that. Additionally, the rebuilding high pressure signals
that warmer low level and surface temperatures are likely due to
subsidence, which will increase the low level lapse rates, plus the
mid-level lapse rates will also be adequate. CAPE values based on
latest forecast soundings look to rise to 2500-3000 J/kg for many
areas while dew point temps will be well into the 70s as well.
Therefore, while the rebuilding high pressure will inhibit
convective growth/initiation to an extent, the unstable state of the
atmosphere leads to a conclusion that there will still be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and this will
be further aided by the afternoon Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea
breeze for extra lift and low level convergence. Flow will be
veering a little more easterly to a SE/SSE direction, which points
to the strongest storms developing over the interior and towards
Gulf coast locations. Nevertheless, a few storms are still possible
along the east coast as well with the highest chances for Palm Beach
county given the southerly wind component.

Overall, while subsidence from an amplifying ridge will try to
hamper convection on Tuesday, parameters exist for some stronger
storms again and a few could become marginally severe or at minimum
near-severe. Primary threats will once again be for strong winds,
large hail, and heavy downpours.

The mid-level ridge will amplify further on Wednesday with mid-level
temperatures rising to help diminish strong thunderstorm chances.
However, there will be enough low level moisture in place to still
support a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
especially along the sea breezes and where they collide. Low level
flow will still be out of the SSE which will put the focus for
development on Wednesday towards the Lake Okeechobee region and
inland South Florida where the sea breezes collide.

Temperatures for the mid week period are expected to rise further
given high pressure building back over the area. Max temperatures
today and on Wednesday are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s for
most areas except the east coast beaches which will hit the low to
mid 80s. With dew points in the 70s, heat indices could climb into
triple digits for a few hours particularly for interior SW Florida.
These are the highest heat index values in quite a while, so persons
are advised to use extra caution to protect themselves against the
heat in SW Florida. Elsewhere, heat indices will top out in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Models show relative good agreement in having a weak mid level ridge
developing over the eastern Gulf, and expanding into the Florida
peninsula on Thursday. Meanwhile, a decaying frontal boundary will
linger over the northern portions of the state to start the long
term. This synoptic setup will result in winds veering to a more
southerly flow across SoFlo on Thursday, and southwesterly by
Friday. Under this wind regime, the lingering moisture trapped ahead
of the front to the north will keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms around the Lake region and interior areas. However,
the mid level ridge will help in limiting chances of rain Thursday
afternoon with POPs/Wx coverage in the 20-40 percent range. Can`t
rule out a few thunderstorms, especially with sea breeze boundaries
pushing inland.

Ensembles and long range globals show a trough/low complex deepening
and pushing eastward across the SE CONUS on Friday. The mid level
ridge flattens and erodes, while an associated frontal boundary
moves across the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend.
Flow aloft becomes SW, while southerly flow at the sfc becomes more
robust by Friday. This will result in increased moisture advection
across SoFlo during the weekend, along with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms area-wide. Max Pops/Wx coverage will
expand north-to-south with 50-60 percent by Saturday, and 60-70
percent by Sunday afternoon. Steeper lapse rates and longer-lasting
sea breeze boundaries will provide good conditions for stronger
storms to develop, with afternoon sea breezes becoming focal points
for deeper convection. A similar weather pattern will likely
continue into Monday.

Temperatures are expected to remain around or slightly warmer than
normals Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid-upper 80s for
coastal locations, and into the low-mid 90s over inland/southwest
areas. Heat index values will reach the 90s on the warmer days. The
anticipated rain and thunderstorm activity should help in keeping
cooler temps through the rest of the weekend, mainly in the mid-
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Winds will be increasing to around 10 kts through the afternoon
today, except at APF where winds shift southwesterly with the
Gulf breeze. Any showers and storms should form well inland and
away from terminals today, with the exception of APF where a few
showers and storms are possible to the east and may drift close to
the terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

High pressure will slowly rebuild over the local waters through mid-
week, with prevailing winds out of the SE at 10-15 knots and seas
generally less than 2 feet. A few localized showers and
thunderstorms remain possible each day, which can cause locally
higher wind and seas at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  75  85  74 /  20   0  10  10
West Kendall     88  72  88  71 /  20   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        88  74  88  73 /  20   0  10  10
Homestead        86  75  86  73 /  20   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  84  75  84  73 /  20   0  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  85  74  84  73 /  20   0  10  10
Pembroke Pines   90  76  89  75 /  20   0  10  10
West Palm Beach  86  72  86  71 /  20  10  20  10
Boca Raton       87  74  87  73 /  20   0  10  10
Naples           88  72  88  72 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto